Article #1 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 5min chart

Here is the first in a series of articles discussing how to use the automatic Master Time Factor (MTF) forecasts in MarketWarrior. The automatic MTF forecast for the S&P500 emini works on both the 5 minute and 60 minute time frames. The chart below shows a 5 minute chart for the S&P500 emini. The exact symbol used is the DTN IQFeed symbol @ES# which is the continuous nearby contract. The chart below runs through June 3, 2015 7:25AM Eastern Time (ET). At 7:25AM I clicked the button in MarketWarrior to recalculate the forecast for this chart. The green line on the chart below is the forecast line. The red triangles with a T inside, identify the forecast tops. The triangles with a B inside, identify the bottom forecasts.

There are four forecast change in trend times on the chart below. Number (1) is a top forecast for 9:30AM ET at the price 2117.65. Number (2) is a bottom forecast for 10:50AM ET at 2110.21. Number (3) is a top forecast at 13:40(1:10PM) ET at the price 2116.30. Number (4) is a bottom forecast at 14:25(2:25PM) ET at the price 2110.21. In the second chart below, I show what happened with this ES forecast.


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The MTF forecast for the S&P500 emini, 5 minute chart, turned out to have the cycle tops and bottoms inverted but the timing was very good. It is common to have the timing of a forecast correct but the top/bottom inverted. Let’s take a look at each forecast point.

The number (1) forecast saw the day’s largest price range for a 5 minute price bar. The price fell and made a bottom. The number (1) change in trend forecast was for a top at 9:30AM ET and a bottom was made at 9:35AM. The number (2) forecast was for a bottom at 10:50AM ET. The S&P500 emini made a top very close to this forecast time. The number (3) forecast was for a top at 1:40PM ET and this was the time when the S&P500 emini started a fast rally. The number (4) forecast was for a bottom at 2:25PM ET and at this time a top was made in the emini. The chart below covers the 3PM and 4PM hours, which are not shown above. This time period includes forecast number (5) which was for a top at 15:25 (3:25PM) ET at the price 2115.96. At this forecast time, the S&P500 emini made a bottom and started a rally. For all five forecasts, the top/bottom forecast was inverted but the timing of the change-in-trend was very good.

Take a look at the charts above and below. Ask yourself if having a forecast like this for the S&P500 emini 5 minute chart would help improve your trading. If your answer is yes, then download the MarketWarrior 5 free trial and sign up for the DTN IQFeed free trial which is a one week free trial.


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