Article #12 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 60min chart

This article is a discussion of the MarketWarrior 5 forecast for the S&P500 E-mini for the 60 minute chart on June 16, 2015.  The MarketWarrior 5 automatic forecasts must be reviewed from time to time and a judgment must be made to continue using the same forecast or to recalculate the forecast. I usually review a forecast each morning before the main trading session for the S&P500 opens at 9:30 AM ET. The chart below shows the E-mini forecast after I recalculated the forecast at 8:55 AM ET on June 16, 2015. This was 35 minutes before the main trading session opened. The forecast shows a bottom at 7:00 AM ET and a top at 17:00 (5:00 PM) ET. There was bottom in the E-mini during the 6:00 AM hour so this forecast looked correct. This meant that for June 16 there was just one CIT forecast at 5:00 PM ET.


Click To Enlarge


The chart below shows the same forecast as above but now the S&P500 E-mini has traded through 18:00, 6:00 PM ET. The size of the forecast rally was much to small when compared to the rally that actually occurred, but the direction and timing of the rally was correct. The forecast was for a rally from 7:00 AM ET to 17:00 (5:00) PM ET. The market rally started before 7:00 AM and has run past 5:00 PM. So the forecast rally time period overlapped most of the actual rally time period. Other than failing to see the large size of this rally, the forecast was mostly accurate.


Click To Enlarge