Article #24 S&P500 E-mini Forecast Review

Here is a review of the forecast made by the MarketWarrior 5 program for the 5 minute chart of the S&P500 E-mini on Tuesday August 4, 2015. I am using the DTN IQFeed as a data source. The symbol used is @ES#, which is the continuous E-mini symbol. I had a late start on August 4 and did not begin until after the main trading session opened. The chart below shows the forecast that I calculated at 10:10 AM ET. The main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET.

There were only three Change-In-Trend (CIT) forecast points for August 4, 2015.  There was a forecast top just a few minutes ahead at 10:30 AM ET at the price 2094.44, then a bottom at 11:00 AM ET at 2089.90. Finally a top was forecast for 13:55(1:55) PM ET.

This forecast looked very good because the over night session had large tops and bottoms that could be used by MarketWarrior to calculate the E-mini cycle. When the overnight session is flat, calculating the market cycle can be difficult, but on August 4 there seemed to be a good amount of volatility in the over night market. The second chart shows what happened during the day.


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On the chart below, I have labeled the three forecast CIT points as A, B and C. The forecast top at 10:30 AM ET was very accurate in both price and time. The actual top came at 10:25 AM ET. This is labeled A.  The forecast labeled B was for a bottom at 11:00 AM ET and again this was very accurate.  The actual bottom came at 10:55 AM ET. The third forecast CIT, labeled C, was for a top at 13:55(1:55) PM ET. The actual top came early at 13:30(1:30) PM ET. On the chart below, I have drawn a red arrow connecting the forecast top C and the actual top in the E-mini. After the top at C, the market followed the forecast pattern and declined for the rest of the main trading session.  If you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.


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