DJIA Forecast Nov 18, 2023

This past week the DJIA was up 664.18 and closed the week at 34,947.28. I had forecast a rally in November, and I purchased several individual stocks to profit from this rally. I use resting limit orders above the market to take profits when my profit targets have been met. This past week my limit orders were triggered for my positions in Palantir (PLTR) and Citigroup (C) so I just went ahead and exited all my positions. My trades in November have been the most profitable this year. There may be more rally in the next few days, but I wanted to lock in the profits once my price targets were reached.

The chart below is an update for my DJIA forecast chart. The green line is the current percent change line. The red/blue line is the historical cycle from 1963-1964. The line changes color from red to blue on May 1st where the line is inverted. The 1963-1964 cycle makes a top that aligns to Monday November 27, 2023. I am expecting a top anytime from Just before Thanksgiving holiday to just after November 27, 2023.

The forecast decline runs from November 27, 2023 to March 11, 2024. This would seem to indicate the holiday shopping starting after Thanksgiving is going to be bad. If this is the case, then the decline will be led by retail stocks like Walmart, Target and Home Depot but also financial stocks like VISA, Master Card and American Express. Next week is a short trading week with the market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving holiday.

Click To Enlarge

Last week the Consumer Price Index was released on Thursday November 14th. The CPI was listed as 0% on a month over month basis and 3.2% on a year over year basis. This was lower inflation than expected and the DJIA rallied. The CPI was influenced by the continued decline in crude oil prices over the past month. The US government passed another budget extension which funds the US government until January 19, 2024 and February 2, 2024.

Last week President Xi Jinping met President Joe Biden on November 15, 2023. The meeting led to no significant changes in the US China relationship. I expected the US government to try and embarrass Xi Jinping as soon as the meeting was over and as soon as the meeting was over President Joe Biden called Xi Jinping a dictator, causing a negative reaction from China. The US will still ship weapons to Taiwan and the restrictions on computer chip sales to China are being tightened. It is hard to see why this meeting even took place.

I posted the stock names that I purchased for this trade two weeks ago in the November 4th update. The stocks and the entry prices are again listed in the table below. Now I have included the exit price and the profit per share. This was the fastest trade of the year, lasting only about 2-1/2 weeks. It was also the most profitable trade of the year. This is how I trade the Master Time Factor forecasts. I forecast the DJIA but I buy individual stocks.

Name/SymbolBoughtSoldProfit Per Share
Apple (AAPL)$170$188$18 (AMZN)$130$144$14
American Express (AXP)$145$158$13
Citigroup (C)$39$45$6
Palantir (PLTR)$15$20$5
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)$147$149$2
Profit Table

Money management is an important part of my success as a trader. After a successful trade I remove money from my trading account so it can’t be lost on a future trades. In this case I will remove money for taxes and half the remaining trading profits. This will be plenty of money for all my living expenses and will grow the balance in my trading account. It is important to transfer money out of your trading accounts after a profitable trade. The reason is that it will affect how you take risks and calculate trade sizes on your future trades. I make most of my money trading the Master Time Factor exactly as described in these weekly forecast updates. Once you gain confidence in the Master Time Factor, your trade size and the overall profits will keep getting larger and larger.


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