There were almost no Change-In-Trend(CIT) points in the overnight market on August 5, 2015. This always makes it harder for MarketWarrior 5 to calculate the cycle that is operating on the 5 minute chart for the E-mini. On August 5 the overnight market basically sloped up with only two minor CIT. When I am forecasting the E-mini, I like to make the first calculation for the 5 minute forecast before the main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET. On the chart below, I have calculated the forecast at 9:15 AM ET. I am using the DTN IQFeed and the continuous future symbol @ES#.

There are two main sections to this forecast. The first is a forecast bottom at 10:05 AM ET;  the second is a rally up to a double top pattern. The double tops occur about one hour apart at 11:40 AM ET and 12:45 PM ET. I have drawn a red arrow labeled A to mark this rally.

The second part of the forecast is a decline after the 12:45 PM ET forecast top. After this forecast top, the 5 minute forecast declines for the rest of the day. I have drawn a blue line labeled B, which identifies this decline.

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The chart below shows the pattern made by the E-mini on August 5, 2015. The forecast pattern was correct, but the E-mini made the pattern approximately one hour earlier than forecast. The red line labeled A1 shows the first rally of the day. This rally ran from 9:20 AM ET to 10:30 AM ET. The forecast shows a rally from 10:05 AM ET to 11:40 AM ET.

The E-mini made a double top at 10:30 AM ET and 11:25 AM ET. The forecast shows a double top at 11:40 AM ET and 12:45 PM ET.

The E-mini then declined after the top at 11:25 AM ET. For this day, August 5, 2015, the forecast pattern for the 5 minute E-mini was correct but it was offset from the actual E-mini price action by approximately one hour.

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This article is a review of the forecast made by MarketWarrior for the 5 minute S&P500 E-mini contract for Tuesday July 21, 2015. This article uses the word advanced in the title because I am going to describe the analysis I went through during the day to make the decision to recalculate the forecast during the main E-mini trading session. In past forecast reviews, I have calculated the forecast one time as the start of the main trading session approached and then let the forecast stand without change so readers could see how the forecast worked. There are many cases when I decide to recalculate the forecast during the main trading session, so I am going to start writing about the more advanced use of the MarketWarrior E-mini forecast.

The main trading session starts for the E-mini at 9:30 AM ET. As the main trading session approaches, I usually calculate the forecast. I calculate the forecast before the main trading session starts, because the volatile price action at the open often provides a misleading indication of the current day’s cycle. Therefore I try to get a cycle calculation before the main trading session opens. On Tuesday July 21, 2015 at 9:10 AM ET, I calculated the E-mini forecast. This forecast is shown below. On this chart I have manually drawn a red arrow pointing up and labeled A. This arrow shows the direction of the forecast culminating in a forecast top at 9:20 AM ET. The second red arrow points down and is labeled B. This shows the direction of the actual price action. You can see the forecast and the actual E-mini price are already diverging even though the forecast has just been made. This is telling us the forecast was not able to accurately calculate the E-mini cycle and a problem exists. Because of this divergence between the forecast and the E-mini, I decided to take a wait and see approach.

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The picture below was taken at 9:55 AM ET and it shows the same forecast seen above. I have manually added a blue dotted line at the forecast top 9:20 AM ET. You can see the top forecast time was the exact time for an E-mini bottom. This E-mini bottom at 9:20 AM ET adds one extra change-in-trend point for MarketWarrior to calculate a more accurate forecast for the rest of the trading day.

On the chart below, I have also added two brown lines. The first brown line connects the forecast tops and is labeled 1. The second line connects the forecast bottoms and is labeled 2. These two brown lines make a low volatility sideways wedge pattern for almost the whole main trading session. This pattern would be unusual for the E-mini, which usually has more price movement than is indicated by this forecast. Because of these two factors, the new bottom CIT at 9:20 AM and the unusual low volatility in the forecast, I decided to recalculate the forecast.

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I recalculated the forecast just before 10:00 AM ET and the new cycle forecast is seen below. This forecast has a normal amount of price volatility with a forecast decline down to a bottom at 14:35(2:35) PM ET at the price 2105. The forecast also shows a main trading session with two main swings. First is a decline to 14:35(2:35) PM ET and then a rally to the end of the main trading session. The main trading session ends at 4:14:59 PM ET when the CME Group closes E-mini trading and reopens at 4:30 PM ET. This 15 minute close in trading ends the main trading session. The forecast pattern seen below with two main swings is fairly common in the E-mini as traders will push the market in one direction most of the day but then try to take profits in the last one or two hours.

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The picture below shows the same forecast as seen above after the main trading session has ended. The E-mini fell into the 2 PM hour (14:00) and then rallied to the end of the day. The recalculated forecast for the E-mini was in fact the correct cycle forecast for July 21, 2015. By recalculating the forecast at 10 AM ET, MarketWarrior was able to make a much more accurate forecast for the rest of the day. I will be writing more advanced articles about the process I go through when making the decision to recalculate the forecast. The large drop seen at the end of the chart occurred at 4:30 PM ET after the market reopened. Look over the chart below and if you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini, there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.

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The charts below shows a review for the automatic MarketWarrior E-mini forecast for Monday July 13, 2015. The E-mini main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET and I usually calculate the forecast for the day as the open approaches. I usually do not recalculate the forecast during the day but you have the option to recalculate a forecast at any time. The chart below uses the DTN IQFeed. At 9:15 AM ET I calculated the forecast seen below. The forecast covers the main E-mini trading session on July 13, 2015.

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The forecast showed a rally up to 10:05 AM ET. The actual E-mini prices rallied until 10:20 AM ET. The forecast then shows a decline until 12:25 PM ET. The actual E-mini declined until 12:55 PM ET. The forecast then showed a sideways move that ended with a top at 14:05(2:05) PM ET. The E-mini followed this path to 14:05(2:05) PM ET. After 14:05(2:05) PM ET, the forecast showed a decline and the E-mini rallied. So the last two hours of the trading day saw the forecast and the E-mini diverge.

When the forecast and the E-mini diverge, I would normally recalculate the forecast, but in this case I used just one forecast calculated at 9:15 AM ET for the whole day. In a future example, I will show a situation when I recalculated the forecast. In this case on July 13, 2015, the forecast was accurate from 9:15 AM ET to 14:05(2:05) PM ET. Look over the chart below and if you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini, there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.

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Here is a review of the MarketWarrior forecast on the E-mini 5 minute chart for July 10, 2015. The chart below is created with the DTN IQFeed using the symbol @ES#. This symbol is the nearby E-mini contract, so you need to check which contract is currently the nearby before trading. The current nearby is the September 2015 contract.

When I use the automatic forecasting module in MarketWarrior 5, I usually identify the time period I want to trade, and then calculate the forecast as that time period approaches. The only two time periods I trade in the E-mini are the overnight period from 1:00 AM ET – 4:00 AM ET which correlates to the Shanghai exchange, and then the main trading session in the US which starts at 9:30 AM ET. On the chart below, at 9:10 AM ET leading up to the start of the main trading session, I calculated the forecasts for the 5 minute chart.

The forecast is the thin red and green line. The top arrows identify the forecast top Change-In-Trend(CIT) based on price and time. The bottom arrows identify the forecast bottom CIT based on price and time. One important part of the forecast is simply the overall pattern in the forecast. In the forecast below, there are two parts. A decline until 11:00 AM ET and then a rally through the rest of the day.

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The chart below shows the same forecast as above, but now the 5 minute price data has filled in during the day. You can see the over all pattern of the forecast was accurate. The price data fell to 10:45 AM ET and then rallied through the rest of the day. Look over the chart below and if you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini, there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.

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Here is a review of the 5 minute S&P500 E-mini forecast for July 08, 2015. I worked on a few market reviews last week but did not have time to post them so I am going to do a little catch up this week. On July 08, 2015 as the main trading session approached, I calculated the forecast for the 5 minute S&P500 E-mini. The main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET. I actually did the calculation at 8:55 AM ET. The forecast picture is below.

This is an unusual forecast for two reasons; first there was a lot price volatility leading up to 8:55 AM. The over night price action was very active. Second is the fact that the forecast slopes down almost all day. It is unusual to see a E-mini intraday cycle that moves down all day. This forecast was made using the DTN IQFeed and MarketWarrior 5.  The symbol used is @ES# from DTN, which is the continuous nearby contract.

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The picture below shows the same forecast as above, but now the price data has filled in. I took this picture at 16:10(4:10) PM ET. This did turn out to be an unusual day because the S&P500 E-mini actually did slope down through most of the day. I am not going to review each of the forecast Change-In-Trend (CIT) points in this forecast. The overall pattern in the forecast was correct, which is very powerful. The 5 minute forecast for the E-mini is quickly becoming the most popular feature in MarketWarrior 5.

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This blog will review the MarketWarrior 5 forecast for the S&P500 E-mini for Monday July 6, 2015. I will be discussing the 5 minute chart. The data used comes from the DTN IQFeed subscription using the symbol @ES#, which is the nearby S&P500 E-mini contract. The following top chart shows the E-mini through 9:10 AM ET. The main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET. I will usually recalculate the forecast for the E-mini a few minutes before the main trading session opens. In this case I recalculated the forecast at 9:10 AM ET. The forecast does not have any user settings; it just requires a single button click.

When a forecast is made, there is a way to see if the forecast has a higher than normal probability of success. If the most recent three Change-In-Trend (CIT) points in the MarketWarrior cycle line and the E-mini are accurately aligned, then the forecast has a much better chance to accurately forecast the day’s price action. The reason for this is that when the most recent three historical CIT points are accurately aligned, it indicates MarketWarrior has correctly calculated the cycle and the forecast should be accurate. On the chart below, I have added the large red numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4. These are identifying the four most recent historical CIT points when the forecast was made at 9:10 AM ET. These four CIT points in the MarketWarrior cycle and the CIT points in the E-mini have a close alignment based on both price and time. This indicates the cycle is calculated accurately and the forecast for the rest of the day should be accurate.

The forecast for the rest of the day shows four CIT points. First is a Top at 11:10 AM ET at the price 2054.19. Then a Bottom at 12:25 PM ET at the price 2058.84. Then a Top at 13:30(1:30) PM ET. Finally the fourth point is a Bottom at 14:50(2:50) PM ET. The high of the day is forecast CIT #1 at 11:10 AM ET and the low of the day is forecast CIT #4 at 14:50(2:50) PM ET.

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The chart below shows the 5 minute price data after the main trading session has ended. You can see the basic pattern in the forecast was also the pattern made by the E-mini. The forecast had a rally to 11:10 AM ET and the E-mini actually rallied to a top at 10:45 AM ET. The second forecast CIT was for a bottom at 12:25 PM ET. At this time a E-mini top occurred. So this was an accurate forecast for the CIT time but the CIT type(top or bottom) was wrong. When making forecasts based on market cycles, this will sometimes happen. The third CIT was for a top at 13:30(1:30) PM ET and this CIT did not occur in the E-mini. The final CIT was forecast for 14:50(2:50) PM ET and was a bottom. The E-mini made a bottom at 14:40(2:40) PM ET. The E-mini then rallied to the end of the chart as indicated in the forecast.

This shows the forecast was calculated one time at 9:10 AM ET and correctly forecast the overall pattern for the day, three of four forecast CIT points aligned to an E-mini CIT and the forecast correctly identified the location of the high and low of the day at forecast CIT #1 and forecast CIT #4.  Look over the chart below and if you think the forecast below would help you trade the E-mini. There is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here to learn more.

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