Sept 24, 2017 Forecast Updates

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—-Current Forecasts—-(login required)
Sunday Sept 24 Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Sunday Sept 24 Coffee
Sunday Sept 24 Gold & Silver
Sunday Sept 24 EURUSD, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Bitcoin – This week we have a forecast for Bitcoin. If there is interest in this we will continue forecasting it.  
Sunday Sept 24 US Stock Market
Sunday Sept 24 Soybean & Corn & Wheat
Sunday Sept 24 Lean Hogs
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—-Next Scheduled updates—-
Sunday Oct 01 Lean Hogs
Sunday Oct 01 Soybean & Corn & Wheat
Sunday Oct 01 US Stock Market
Sunday Oct 01 EURUSD, Japanese Yen, British Pound
Sunday Oct 01 Gold & Silver
Sunday Oct 01 Coffee
Sunday Oct 01 Crude Oil & Natural Gas
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New in MarketWarrior 5.2017.9.14

In the newest version of MarketWarrior (5.2017.9.14) we have added support for forecasting five more commodity markets. This brings the total number of future markets that MarketWarrior 5 can make an automatic forecast for, to 34 markets. The new markets are listed below.

(1) Lumber
(2) Rough Rice
(3) Oats
(4) Kansas City Wheat (Hard Red Winter)
(5) Minneapolis Wheat (Hard Red Spring)

Also in this new version of MarketWarrior 5 are updates to all the seasonal patterns for all 34 futures markets. The daily chart automatic forecasts use seasonal patterns based on the instructions in W.D. Gann’s Master Commodity Course.

The chart below shows the automatic forecast for the December 2017 Kansas City wheat chart.

Kansas City Wheat

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New in MarketWarrior 5.2017.8.1

MarketWarrior (5.2017.08.01) is Available – We have added support for currency futures to the automatic forecasts for daily charts. This includes the futures markets below:
(1) Australian Dollar
(2) British Pound
(3) Canadian Dollar
(4) Euro
(5) Japanese Yen
(6) Swiss Frank
(7) US Dollar Index

MarketWarrior 5 can now make a daily chart forecast for these currency markets. We have also updated the automatic forecasts for cocoa futures and natural gas futures with the latest seasonal patterns. The picture below shows the daily chart for the Japanese Yen futures contract. The blue line is the automatic forecast. You can download the upgrade to this new version on the MarketWarrior 5 owner’s page. The free trial now includes this new version.

JapYen_2017_08_06

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5 Minute Forecasts for S&P500 and NIFTY 50

In this blog I am going to show how to use MarketWarrior 5’s automatic forecasting tool for the 5 minute chart. I am going to be using the S&P500 symbol from Google Finance, LNX. I will also be using the NIFTY50 symbol $SPIR from Barchart.com. The forecasting tool we are using is applied to a price chart by clicking the button labeled ‘5/60Min Forecast’. This is show in the first picture below. The blog will cover July 20th to 24th.

JULY 20, 2017

The picture below shows the 5 minute chart for the S&P500 using the symbol LNX. This S&P500 symbol has data from 9:30AM when the main trading session opens in the US to 3:59PM when the main trading session closes. The MarketWarrior 5 automatic forecasting tool has been applied to the chart below. The forecast can be recalculated as often as you want or not at all. When I use this forecasting tool I do not recalculate very often, usually from zero to two times a day and that is all.

On the chart below I have added the forecasting tool at 9:55AM on July 20, 2017. I have added a blue vertical line marking the time 9:55AM when the forecast was made. I usually select a time close to 10:00 AM because I want the opening gap and the first few bars to be included in the forecast calculation. The forecasting tool is converting the recent price action into a cycle and is then extending the cycle forward.

On the chart below you can see the price action for July 19, 2017 was upward sloping with almost know counter-trend declines. This usually results in the next days forecast showing a strong up move. This is what happened on July 20, 2017, the forecast made in the morning at 9:55AM was a strong up move.

2017_07_20_sp1

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The next chart shows the 5 minute chart about half way through the day. The price action did not follow the forecast and there was no trade to be made. When I am recalculating a forecast I only do it a few times a day. If the forecast is wrong and the market is not following then there is nothing to trade. I like to recalculate a forecast half-way through a trading day for the market I am looking at. In this case between 12:30PM and 1:00PM represents halfway through the trading day. The chart below shows the errant forecast with the price data through 12:55PM. On the next chart I am going to recalculate the forecast.

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The picture below still shows July 20, 2017 and I have now recalculated the forecast at 12:55PM. The new forecast shows the remainder of the trading day which is three hours from 1:00PM to 3:59PM. There are now four forecast turning points. Two bottoms and two tops.

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The final two charts show how this worked out in the second half of the day. The pattern of two bottoms and two tops with a decline into the end of the main trading session did in fact occur. The forecast for the second half of the day was accurate. The green indicator in the sub-chart is the ‘Stochastic of RSI’ which is one of the better momentum indicators for small time frame charts such as 5 minute charts.

Click To Enlarge

The final picture below shows the forecast line with no top and bottom markers so it can be seen clearly. When the forecast line shows a bottom and the Stochastic of RSI is over sold it is a buy signal. When the forecast line is showing a top and the Stochastic of RSI is over bought it is a sell signal.

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JULY 21, 2017

The picture below shows the Google Finance symbol LNX for the S&P500. This is a 5 minute chart and is a continuation of the chart above. On July 21, 2017 I waited for the main trading session to open to see the opening gap and then calculated the forecast at the same time seen in the previous example which was 9:55AM. I have added a blue vertical line making 9:55AM. The forecast tool calculates a cycle from the recent historical data and then extends the cycle forward as the red line.

Click To Enlarge

The green line in the sub-chart is the Stochastic of RSI indicator. The red forecast line is above the actual price data for July 21, 2017 but the pattern is correct. On this day no recalculation was necessary. The forecast turning points were close to market turning points. The forecast pattern, trend and direction were similar to the actual market.

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JULY 24, 2017

Below is an example for the S&P500 using the Google Finance symbol LNX. The chart is again a 5 minute chart. I am going to apply the same procedure to using the forecast line. On July 24, 2017 I waited to see the opening gap and allowed a few bars to form. I added the forecast indicator at 9:55AM just before 10:00AM. The forecast line is the red line that extends to the end of the day.

Click To Enlarge

It was apparent by 11:00AM the forecast was errant and was not aligning to the S&P500 price movements. I waited until the middle of the day to recalculate the chart. Recalculating at the middle of the trading day usually generates good results but you can recalculate at any time.

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The picture below shows the forecast after I recalculated it at 12:55PM. This is the same time I recalculated in the previous July 20, 2017 example. Using a starting calculation at 9:55AM and a recalculation time, if it is needed, at 12:55AM seems to work well for the S&P500 chart. The green line in the sub-chart is the ‘Stochastic of RSI’ indicator which works well on the S&P500, 5 minute chart.

When the forecast line shows a bottom and the Stochastic of RSI is over sold it is a buy signal. When the forecast line is showing a top and the Stochastic of RSI is over bought it is a sell signal.

Click To Enlarge

Below is the final chart for the July 24, 2017 S&P500. The forecast line for the second half of the day shows a rally for most of the time from 1:00PM to 3:59PM with a decline at the end of the day. The red forecast line shows a price swing from low to high that is larger than the actual price swing but the pattern, trend and direction is correct.

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JULY 21, 2017 – NIFTY 50 symbol $SPIR

The two pictures below show an example for using the forecast tool on the 5 minute chart for the Indian stock index NIFTY 50. This chart is using the Barchart.com symbol $SPIR. This symbol trades almost 24 hours a day but there is a main trading session that runs from 9:00AM to 3:59PM.

On the chart below I calculated the forecast just after the main trading session opened at 9:05AM. I have added a blue vertical line marking the time when the forecast was calculated. The forecasting tool is calculating a cycle from the recent historical data and then it is extending the cycle into the future.

Click To Enlarge

 

Below is the same forecast as above, but now with the data through the end of the main trading session. This forecast was accurate enough that I would not have recalculated the forecast during the day. I do not trade the NIFTY 50 but I will try to get more examples showing the forecast tool with the NIFTY 50 because we get a lot of requests for showing this index.

Click To Enlarge

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Gold 5 Minute Chart Forecast

This article shows three days of forecasts for the 5 minute gold chart using the new forecasting model for the 5/60 minute charts. The picture below shows the button you need to click in MarketWarrior 5 to apply this indicator to a 5 minute chart. The button is labeled ‘5/60Min Forecast’.

 

JULY 3, 2017

The first picture below shows the 5 minute chart for the August gold contract for July 3, 2017. The red and green line is the forecast for the 5 minute gold chart. The triangles showing a T inside mark forecast tops. The triangles showing a B mark forecast bottoms. This forecast was calculated at 8:35AM, July 3, 2017.

gold1

Here is the forecast result for July 3, 2017. The picture below shows the same forecast as seen above but now the data is filled in through the end of the day. You can compare the pattern in the forecast line, and the 5 minute gold prices.

gold2

 

JULY 5, 2017

Here is a second example of the 5 minute forecast for gold. The picture below shows the August gold contract for July 5, 2017. The red and green line is again the forecast for the 5 minute chart. The forecast was made at 7:30AM, July 5, 2017.

 

The picture below shows the same forecast as above, and now the chart data is filled in through the end of the day. When I am using this forecasting model I usually calculate the forecast just before and/or just after the main trading session starts. When the main trading session starts there is often a jump in volatility that can help the forecast cycle calculate more accurately for the remainder of the day. If the forecast is not accurate I recalculate at the start of a new hour. The forecast below was not recalculated and is the same as seen in the picture above.

gold4

 

JULY 10, 2017

Here is the final example. The picture below shows the August gold contract for July 10, 2017. This is a 5 minute chart. The forecast was made at 7:35AM, July 10, 2017. The red and green line is the forecast for 5 minute gold chart.

gold6

The final picture shows the data for July 10, 2017 filled in at the end of the day. This forecast was not recalculated but you can recalculate the forecast at any time during the day.

gold7

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60 Min Forecast for Nifty50

MarketWarrior 5 has a updated version of the forecasting tool for the 60 minute chart. The new version should work better with international stock indexes and individual stocks. On the charts below I will take a look at the symbol $SIPR from Barchart.com. This is listed as Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index. This is a variation of the Indian stock index NIFTY50.

The chart below is a 60 minute chart, and the red line on the chart is the forecast cycle that was calculated at 8:00AM on June 19, 2017. The 60 minute forecast usually will forecast the cycle in a stock index for several days on the 60 minute chart before it needs to be recalculated.

$SIPR - Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index

$SIPR – Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index

 

The second chart shows the $SIPR chart about 1 day later.  I will follow this forecast for the rest of the week to see how it turned out.

$SIPR - Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index

$SIPR – Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index

 

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New Retracement Indicators

MarketWarrior 5.2017.6.16 has added two retracement indicators. These are named ‘ABC Retrace’ and ‘AB Retrace’. The upgrade for the new version can be downloaded in the MW 5 owner’s page.

The picture below shows the ‘ABC Retrace’ indicator. This indicator will draw two lines connecting three change-in-trend points. The indicator will then drawn retracement lines. The retracement calculation can be made based on the size of the AB line or the BC line.

ABC_Retrace

ABC_Retrace

 

Below is a picture of the ‘AB Retrace’ indicator. This indicator draws a line between two points and then drawns retracement price levels.

AB_Retrace

AB_Retrace

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Yahoo Data

The company Yahoo Inc. is being sold to the cell phone company Verizon.  Yahoo Finance has turned off access to all free historical data. We are looking for an alternative data source. As of right now there is no more free historical data from Yahoo Finance.  I believe the data from Google is still available in MarketWarrior 5.

 

New Forecasting Model in MW 5.2017.5.21

We have a new forecast model for the 5 minute and 60 minute charts in MarketWarrior 5.2017.05.21. The original forecasting model was designed for the S&P500 emini. This new forecast model is declined to work better on individual stocks, commodities and international indexes. The new forecasting model can also be recalculated more frequently with better results.

The chart below shows the 5 minute chart for Apple Inc. The US stock market opens at 9:30 AM and the forecast below was calculated at 10:50AM. When using this forecasting method you must allow the market to open before making the first forecast calculation of the day. The reason is simply that individual stocks often make a gap at the open that is used to calculate the correct cycle for the day. I usually recalculate the forecast every few hours but the 5 minute forecast can be recalculated more frequently if you want.

The picture below shows the forecast made at 10:50 AM for the Apple Inc. 5 minute chart.

AAPL_2017May26Part1

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After the US stock market closed I took the picture below. I have drawn a red box around the forecast area on the chart above. This shows how the forecast worked out for the rest of the day. The 5 minute forecast for he next day can not be calculated until after Apple Inc. opens the next day at 9:30 AM.

AAPL_2017May26Part2

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Automatic Forecasts for Commodities

The Master Time Factor automatic forecasts are now available for daily commodity charts. The automatic forecasts have been available for the S&P500 ES futures contracts and now they are available for the following 22 futures: 1)Cocoa  2)Coffee  3)Copper  4)Corn  5)Cotton  6)Crude Oil  7)Feeder Cattle  8)Gasoline  9)Gold  10)Heating Oil  11)Lean Hogs  12)Live Cattle  13)Natural Gas  14)Orange Juice  15)Palladium  16)Platinum  17)Silver  18)Soybeans  19)Soybean Meal  20)Soybean Oil  21)Sugar11 and  22)Wheat. This indicator is now available in MarketWarrior 5.2016.7.5. The free trial is available for download here.

auto_mtf

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