Article #13 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 5min chart

Here is a review of the automatic forecast for the S&P500 E-mini that was made by MarketWarrior 5 using the DTN IQFeed subscription. Each day before the main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET, I calculate a new forecast for the 5 minute chart. On the chart below, the forecast was calculated at approximately 8:15 AM ET. You can choose to recalculate the forecast at any time during the day or you can choose to use the same forecast all day. In a normal situation, I either use the same forecast all day or I recalculate just once during the day.

Today, June 17, 2015 is the day of a FED monetary policy statement, which will be released at 2:00 PM ET and the forecast below shows a Change-In-Trend (CIT) for 14:00 (2:00 PM) ET. When there is a important preplanned announcement from the FED that falls at the same time as a MarketWarrior CIT forecast, this automatically should become the focus of the forecast. In this situation the forecast for a bottom at 14:00 (2:00 PM) is the most important CIT in this forecast.


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The 5 minute chart below shows the E-mini data through 16:30 (4:30 PM) ET. I have added blue dotted lines at the time of the forecast (CIT) points. There was a forecast top at 11:50 AM but there was no rally and no top at this time. The forecast top CIT at 13:00 (1:00 PM) turned out to be an accurate CIT, but for a bottom instead of a top. The most important forecast point was the 14:00 (2:00 PM) bottom CIT because of the FED announcement. I have added a small blue arrow to this chart showing  the bottom at 2:00 PM ET. This was the low price of the day. The S&P500 E-mini made a bottom and then a large rally within minutes of the FED announcement at 2:00 PM. This was an excellent forecast but it can be expected there will be a major intraday move when the FED makes an announcement, because there are a very large number of traders who try to trade the price move after a FED announcement. My personal experience with trading off of a FED announcement, is that it is difficult because of the speed and quick reversals of the price movements. The forecast top CIT at 15:25 (3:25 PM) was a good forecast and the E-mini fell through the end of the chart.


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