Article #17 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 60min chart

Each morning I review the overnight price action in the S&P500 E-mini. The MarketWarrior forecast for the E-mini on a 60 minute chart covers one week so each morning I make a decision to either recalculate the forecast for the rest of the week or leave the forecast unchanged. I do this before the main trading session opens. The chart below shows the 60 minute chart for the E-mini through 6:00 AM ET on July 1, 2015. The forecast shown on this chart is the same forecast seen in the previous article discussing the 60 minute E-mini chart. The forecast made the previous day shows a Change-In-Trend (CIT) at 7:00 AM ET on July 1, 2015 at the price 2073.43 and the overnight market had been moving up toward 7:00 AM and the price levels were similar to the forecast price levels. Because of this I decided not to recalculate the forecast.

The forecast shows three CIT for July 1, 2015. These are a Top at 7:00 AM ET at the price 2073.43. Second is a Bottom at 12:00 (noon) PM ET at the price 1068.38 and finally a Top at 19:00 (7:00) PM ET at the price 2073.07. On the chart below I have drawn a red box around the forecast area. This creates a forecast pattern for July 1, 2015 which is a sequence of Top-Bottom-Top and should look like a V or double top pattern.

This forecast was made with MarketWarrior 5 using DTN IQFeed. The tool that makes the forecast does not require any user settings or inputs, it is fully automatic.


Click To Enlarge


The chart below shows the 60 minute E-mini chart during the 21:00(9:00) PM hour on July 21, 2015. The forecast for July 1 turned out to be very accurate. The pattern on July 1, 2015 shows a top early in the day at 5:00 AM then a bottom at 2:00 PM and finally a top at 4:00 PM. This created a Top-Bottom-Top pattern similar to the forecast pattern. Each forecast CIT was off by two bars. The price action during the main trading session was sideways but a rally did occur between the June 30 and July 1 main trading sessions. This occurred in the after hours session of June 30, 2015 and the pre-market session on July 1, 2015. When you see a trend between the main trading sessions it indicates there was some important international news that caused the Globex E-mini market to move overnight. Recently overnight markets have been affected by economic news from China or news about the Greek economic crisis. A strong up trend overnight often leads a sideways pattern in the main trading session.


Click To Enlarge