Article #18 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 5min chart

The MarketWarrior automatic forecast for the 5 minute S&P500 E-mini, will forecast one day’s price action. This means the 5 minute forecast must be recalculated at least once a day. I usually recalculate the 5 minute forecast sometime in the hour before the main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET.  Below is a 5 minute E-mini chart made with MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. The chart runs through 9:10 AM ET on July 1, 2015. At this time I calculated the forecast for the rest of day. The 5 minute forecast can be seen below.

The forecast line is the thin green and red line. The forecast area on this chart runs through 16:00(4:00) PM. There are four Change-In-Trend shown in the forecast area. The first is a Bottom that occurs at 10:00 AM ET with a target price of 2062.48. The second CIT is a Top at 11:35 AM ET with a target price at 2071.09. The third CIT is a Bottom at 14:05(2:05) PM ET with a target price of 2059.41. Finally the fourth forecast CIT occurs at 14:55(2:55) PM ET with a target price of 2064.63. If the E-mini makes a CIT which is not in the forecast and starts to move away from the forecast, I will recalculate the forecast. Under normal circumstances I do not recalculate the forecast during the day.


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Below is the E-mini 5 minute chart with the price data filled in through the end of the chart. I have added a blue dotted line to mark the first forecast CIT. This was a forecast for a bottom at 10:00 AM ET. You can see on the chart below. this turned out to be the exact time for a Top CIT. When making a forecast based on cycles and patterns. it is sometimes the case that a top forecast will turn out to be a bottom and vice versa.

The second forecast CIT was very close in both time and price. The forecast Top was for 11:35 AM ET at 2071.09 and you can see the E-mini price bars made a top very close to the forecast.

The third forecast CIT was also very close in both time and price. The forecast was for a bottom at 14:05(2:05) PM ET at the price 2059.41. You can see below, the E-mini price and the timing of the corresponding bottom was very close to the forecast.

The fourth and final CIT forecast was for a top at 14:55(2:55) PM ET at the price 2064.63. The E-mini actually touched the forecast price level during the price bar for the time 14:55. The E-mini rallied into the last CIT forecast and continued to rally. It did not make a top. On this day July 1, 2015, the E-mini followed the pattern and price direction in the forecast almost all day expect for the last two hours 15:00 and 16:00. Look over the chart below and if you think the forecast below would help you trade the E-mini there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here to learn more.


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