The Master Time Factor (MTF) is a cycle method developed by W.D. Gann. The MTF is used to forecast the markets by finding the historical cycle that is repeating in the markets at the current time. The most famous use of the MTF was W.D. Gann’s annual forecasts. W.D. Gann had a forecasting and advisory service from which he would sell an annual market forecast which would cover the next 9 to 12 months. W.D. Gann did not intend the annual forecasts to be a standalone product; they were supplemented by monthly updates and there was the option of a weekly update provided by telegraph service.
Today Mikula Forecasting Service uses W.D. Gann’s Master Time Factor to forecast to eight markets. The DJIA, the interest rate on the US 10 year T-Note, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Rough Rice and the China/Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. The picture below shows one of our Master Time Factor Charts for the DJIA from 2013. The orange bars are the DJIA. The green line is the 2013 percent change line. The light blue line is the historical cycle identified by the Master Time Factor. This historical cycle help us to forecast the DJIA for over six months. When the Master Time Factor identifies a historical cycle that can be used for forecasting, the cycle will usually work as a forecasting tool for six to eighteen months.
Below is a sample Master Time Factor which we used to forecast Gold in 2013. The green bars are the continuous nearby futures contract for gold. The blue line is the 2013 percent change line. The purple line is the historical cycle identified by the Master Time Factor which we used to forecast the gold market through most of 2013. The 2013 gold market tracked this historical cycle for most of the year. We were able to forecast the major trend and most of the swing in 2013 gold using this historical cycle.
Next is a sample of a Master Time Factor Chart for silver. The brown bars are the nearby silver futures contract. The fuchsia line is the historical cycle identified by the Master Time Factor. This historical cycle accurately forecast the movements of the 2013 silver market for most of the year. On this chart there is a blue box. We will often use a forecast price-time box to set target boundaries for a forecast in the near future. On the chart below you can see the blue price-time box cover approximately two months. For the silver market in 2013 we forecast the major trend and most of the minor swings correctly.
Below is the Master Time Factor Chart used to forecast the daily EURUSD. The orange bars are the EURUSD. The teal line is the historical cycle identified by the Master Time Factor. This historical cycle was used to forecast the 2013 EURUSD for most of the year. The red arrows with a date above or below them on this chart were all added to the chart in advance as forecast Change In Trend (CIT) dates. For most of 2013, we were able to accuracy forecast the trend in EURUSD and most of the Change In Trend dates. Again on this chart you can see we used a blue price-time box to forecast the price range over a set period of time. In this case we forecast the price range over a period of one and a half months.
Finally here is one of our Master Time Factor charts for soybean. This MTF chart shows the May soybean contract as blue bars. The green line is the 2013 percent change line. The three other lines are historical cycles that made their annual low in August. The 2013 cycle for soybean made the annual low in August which is fairly rare. This gives us clues about where the seasonal cycles are going to go in 2014. On the chart below, we added a red box. This is a price-time forecast for the soybean harvest low. The harvest low did occur during this forecast time period but held just above the forecast price range which was 1200 to 1220. Using the Master Time Factor in soybean our goal is to get the forecasts for the major seasonal pattern correct.