Gold 5 Minute Chart Forecast

Posted on July 10, 2017 by Patrick Mikula CSA

This article shows three days of forecasts for the 5 minute gold chart using the new forecasting model for the 5/60 minute charts. The picture below shows the button you need to click in MarketWarrior 5 to apply this indicator to a 5 minute chart. The button is labeled ‘5/60Min Forecast’.

JULY 3, 2017

The first picture below shows the 5 minute chart for the August gold contract for July 3, 2017. The red and green line is the forecast for the 5 minute gold chart. The triangles showing a T inside mark forecast tops. The triangles showing a B mark forecast bottoms. This forecast was calculated at 8:35AM, July 3, 2017.

Here is the forecast result for July 3, 2017. The picture below shows the same forecast as seen above but now the data is filled in through the end of the day. You can compare the pattern in the forecast line, and the 5 minute gold prices.

JULY 5, 2017

Here is a second example of the 5 minute forecast for gold. The picture below shows the August gold contract for July 5, 2017. The red and green line is again the forecast for the 5 minute chart. The forecast was made at 7:30AM, July 5, 2017.

The picture below shows the same forecast as above, and now the chart data is filled in through the end of the day. When I am using this forecasting model I usually calculate the forecast just before and/or just after the main trading session starts. When the main trading session starts there is often a jump in volatility that can help the forecast cycle calculate more accurately for the remainder of the day. If the forecast is not accurate I recalculate at the start of a new hour. The forecast below was not recalculated and is the same as seen in the picture above.

JULY 10, 2017

Here is the final example. The picture below shows the August gold contract for July 10, 2017. This is a 5 minute chart. The forecast was made at 7:35AM, July 10, 2017. The red and green line is the forecast for 5 minute gold chart.

The final picture shows the data for July 10, 2017 filled in at the end of the day. This forecast was not recalculated but you can recalculate the forecast at any time during the day.

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60 Min Forecast for Nifty50

Posted on June 20, 2017 by Patrick Mikula CSA

MarketWarrior 5 has a updated version of the forecasting tool for the 60 minute chart. The new version should work better with international stock indexes and individual stocks. On the charts below I will take a look at the symbol $SIPR from Barchart.com. This is listed as Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index. This is a variation of the Indian stock index NIFTY50.

The chart below is a 60 minute chart, and the red line on the chart is the forecast cycle that was calculated at 8:00AM on June 19, 2017. The 60 minute forecast usually will forecast the cycle in a stock index for several days on the 60 minute chart before it needs to be recalculated.

$SIPR – Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index

The second chart shows the $SIPR chart about 1 day later. I will follow this forecast for the rest of the week to see how it turned out.

$SIPR – Brics Nifty 50 Emerging Market Tradable Index

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New Retracement Indicators

Posted on June 19, 2017 by Patrick Mikula CSA

MarketWarrior 5.2017.6.16 has added two retracement indicators. These are named ‘ABC Retrace’ and ‘AB Retrace’. The upgrade for the new version can be downloaded in the MW 5 owner’s page.

The picture below shows the ‘ABC Retrace’ indicator. This indicator will draw two lines connecting three change-in-trend points. The indicator will then drawn retracement lines. The retracement calculation can be made based on the size of the AB line or the BC line.

ABC_Retrace

Below is a picture of the ‘AB Retrace’ indicator. This indicator draws a line between two points and then drawns retracement price levels.

AB_Retrace

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Yahoo Data

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Patrick Mikula CSA

The company Yahoo Inc. is being sold to the cell phone company Verizon. Yahoo Finance has turned off access to all free historical data. We are looking for an alternative data source. As of right now there is no more free historical data from Yahoo Finance. I believe the data from Google is still available in MarketWarrior 5.

Automatic Forecasts for Commodities

Posted on July 7, 2016 by Patrick Mikula CSA

The Master Time Factor automatic forecasts are now available for daily commodity charts. The automatic forecasts have been available for the S&P500 ES futures contracts and now they are available for the following 22 futures: 1)Cocoa 2)Coffee 3)Copper 4)Corn 5)Cotton 6)Crude Oil 7)Feeder Cattle 8)Gasoline 9)Gold 10)Heating Oil 11)Lean Hogs 12)Live Cattle 13)Natural Gas 14)Orange Juice 15)Palladium 16)Platinum 17)Silver 18)Soybeans 19)Soybean Meal 20)Soybean Oil 21)Sugar11 and 22)Wheat. This indicator is now available in MarketWarrior 5.2016.7.5. The free trial is available for download here.

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Million Dollar Pivot Finder

Posted on June 7, 2016 by Patrick Mikula CSA

The picture below is shows the 5 minute S&P500 emini contract. This is the September contract. The MarketWarrior 5 indicator Million Dollar Pivot Finder (MDPF) is applied to this chart. This is a zero delay indicator that identifies a change-in-trend. The triangles with the B in the center identify bottom CIT. The triangles with a T in the center identify market tops. These triangles do not move once they appear. The MDPF is now available in MarkletWarrior 5.2016.6.2.

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Article #25 S&P500 E-mini Forecast Review

Posted on August 6, 2015 by Patrick Mikula CSA

There were almost no Change-In-Trend(CIT) points in the overnight market on August 5, 2015. This always makes it harder for MarketWarrior 5 to calculate the cycle that is operating on the 5 minute chart for the E-mini. On August 5 the overnight market basically sloped up with only two minor CIT. When I am forecasting the E-mini, I like to make the first calculation for the 5 minute forecast before the main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET. On the chart below, I have calculated the forecast at 9:15 AM ET. I am using the DTN IQFeed and the continuous future symbol @ES#.

There are two main sections to this forecast. The first is a forecast bottom at 10:05 AM ET; the second is a rally up to a double top pattern. The double tops occur about one hour apart at 11:40 AM ET and 12:45 PM ET. I have drawn a red arrow labeled A to mark this rally.

The second part of the forecast is a decline after the 12:45 PM ET forecast top. After this forecast top, the 5 minute forecast declines for the rest of the day. I have drawn a blue line labeled B, which identifies this decline.

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The chart below shows the pattern made by the E-mini on August 5, 2015. The forecast pattern was correct, but the E-mini made the pattern approximately one hour earlier than forecast. The red line labeled A1 shows the first rally of the day. This rally ran from 9:20 AM ET to 10:30 AM ET. The forecast shows a rally from 10:05 AM ET to 11:40 AM ET.

The E-mini made a double top at 10:30 AM ET and 11:25 AM ET. The forecast shows a double top at 11:40 AM ET and 12:45 PM ET.

The E-mini then declined after the top at 11:25 AM ET. For this day, August 5, 2015, the forecast pattern for the 5 minute E-mini was correct but it was offset from the actual E-mini price action by approximately one hour.

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Article #24 S&P500 E-mini Forecast Review

Posted on August 6, 2015 by Patrick Mikula CSA

Here is a review of the forecast made by the MarketWarrior 5 program for the 5 minute chart of the S&P500 E-mini on Tuesday August 4, 2015. I am using the DTN IQFeed as a data source. The symbol used is @ES#, which is the continuous E-mini symbol. I had a late start on August 4 and did not begin until after the main trading session opened. The chart below shows the forecast that I calculated at 10:10 AM ET. The main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET.

There were only three Change-In-Trend (CIT) forecast points for August 4, 2015. There was a forecast top just a few minutes ahead at 10:30 AM ET at the price 2094.44, then a bottom at 11:00 AM ET at 2089.90. Finally a top was forecast for 13:55(1:55) PM ET.

This forecast looked very good because the over night session had large tops and bottoms that could be used by MarketWarrior to calculate the E-mini cycle. When the overnight session is flat, calculating the market cycle can be difficult, but on August 4 there seemed to be a good amount of volatility in the over night market. The second chart shows what happened during the day.

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On the chart below, I have labeled the three forecast CIT points as A, B and C. The forecast top at 10:30 AM ET was very accurate in both price and time. The actual top came at 10:25 AM ET. This is labeled A. The forecast labeled B was for a bottom at 11:00 AM ET and again this was very accurate. The actual bottom came at 10:55 AM ET. The third forecast CIT, labeled C, was for a top at 13:55(1:55) PM ET. The actual top came early at 13:30(1:30) PM ET. On the chart below, I have drawn a red arrow connecting the forecast top C and the actual top in the E-mini. After the top at C, the market followed the forecast pattern and declined for the rest of the main trading session. If you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.

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Advanced Use of The MarketWarrior E-mini Forecast

Posted on July 22, 2015 by Patrick Mikula CSA

This article is a review of the forecast made by MarketWarrior for the 5 minute S&P500 E-mini contract for Tuesday July 21, 2015. This article uses the word advanced in the title because I am going to describe the analysis I went through during the day to make the decision to recalculate the forecast during the main E-mini trading session. In past forecast reviews, I have calculated the forecast one time as the start of the main trading session approached and then let the forecast stand without change so readers could see how the forecast worked. There are many cases when I decide to recalculate the forecast during the main trading session, so I am going to start writing about the more advanced use of the MarketWarrior E-mini forecast.

The main trading session starts for the E-mini at 9:30 AM ET. As the main trading session approaches, I usually calculate the forecast. I calculate the forecast before the main trading session starts, because the volatile price action at the open often provides a misleading indication of the current day’s cycle. Therefore I try to get a cycle calculation before the main trading session opens. On Tuesday July 21, 2015 at 9:10 AM ET, I calculated the E-mini forecast. This forecast is shown below. On this chart I have manually drawn a red arrow pointing up and labeled A. This arrow shows the direction of the forecast culminating in a forecast top at 9:20 AM ET. The second red arrow points down and is labeled B. This shows the direction of the actual price action. You can see the forecast and the actual E-mini price are already diverging even though the forecast has just been made. This is telling us the forecast was not able to accurately calculate the E-mini cycle and a problem exists. Because of this divergence between the forecast and the E-mini, I decided to take a wait and see approach.

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The picture below was taken at 9:55 AM ET and it shows the same forecast seen above. I have manually added a blue dotted line at the forecast top 9:20 AM ET. You can see the top forecast time was the exact time for an E-mini bottom. This E-mini bottom at 9:20 AM ET adds one extra change-in-trend point for MarketWarrior to calculate a more accurate forecast for the rest of the trading day.

On the chart below, I have also added two brown lines. The first brown line connects the forecast tops and is labeled 1. The second line connects the forecast bottoms and is labeled 2. These two brown lines make a low volatility sideways wedge pattern for almost the whole main trading session. This pattern would be unusual for the E-mini, which usually has more price movement than is indicated by this forecast. Because of these two factors, the new bottom CIT at 9:20 AM and the unusual low volatility in the forecast, I decided to recalculate the forecast.

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I recalculated the forecast just before 10:00 AM ET and the new cycle forecast is seen below. This forecast has a normal amount of price volatility with a forecast decline down to a bottom at 14:35(2:35) PM ET at the price 2105. The forecast also shows a main trading session with two main swings. First is a decline to 14:35(2:35) PM ET and then a rally to the end of the main trading session. The main trading session ends at 4:14:59 PM ET when the CME Group closes E-mini trading and reopens at 4:30 PM ET. This 15 minute close in trading ends the main trading session. The forecast pattern seen below with two main swings is fairly common in the E-mini as traders will push the market in one direction most of the day but then try to take profits in the last one or two hours.

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The picture below shows the same forecast as seen above after the main trading session has ended. The E-mini fell into the 2 PM hour (14:00) and then rallied to the end of the day. The recalculated forecast for the E-mini was in fact the correct cycle forecast for July 21, 2015. By recalculating the forecast at 10 AM ET, MarketWarrior was able to make a much more accurate forecast for the rest of the day. I will be writing more advanced articles about the process I go through when making the decision to recalculate the forecast. The large drop seen at the end of the chart occurred at 4:30 PM ET after the market reopened. Look over the chart below and if you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini, there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.

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Article #22 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 5min chart

Posted on July 17, 2015 by Patrick Mikula CSA

The charts below shows a review for the automatic MarketWarrior E-mini forecast for Monday July 13, 2015. The E-mini main trading session opens at 9:30 AM ET and I usually calculate the forecast for the day as the open approaches. I usually do not recalculate the forecast during the day but you have the option to recalculate a forecast at any time. The chart below uses the DTN IQFeed. At 9:15 AM ET I calculated the forecast seen below. The forecast covers the main E-mini trading session on July 13, 2015.

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The forecast showed a rally up to 10:05 AM ET. The actual E-mini prices rallied until 10:20 AM ET. The forecast then shows a decline until 12:25 PM ET. The actual E-mini declined until 12:55 PM ET. The forecast then showed a sideways move that ended with a top at 14:05(2:05) PM ET. The E-mini followed this path to 14:05(2:05) PM ET. After 14:05(2:05) PM ET, the forecast showed a decline and the E-mini rallied. So the last two hours of the trading day saw the forecast and the E-mini diverge.

When the forecast and the E-mini diverge, I would normally recalculate the forecast, but in this case I used just one forecast calculated at 9:15 AM ET for the whole day. In a future example, I will show a situation when I recalculated the forecast. In this case on July 13, 2015, the forecast was accurate from 9:15 AM ET to 14:05(2:05) PM ET. Look over the chart below and if you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini, there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.

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