Article #2 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 60min chart

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In this article I am going to discuss forecasting the 60 minute chart for the S&P500 emini. On the charts below, I am using the DTN IQFeed symbol @ES#, which is the continuous nearby contract for the S&P500 emini.

The chart below shows the 60 minute data for the S&P500 emini. The last bar on the chart is for the time 7:00AM ET and the date is June 3, 2015. At this time I clicked the button in the MarketWarrior 5 program to update the forecast. The resulting forecast is shown below. I recommend recalculating the 60 minute forecast only once a day. In most cases I will recalculate the 60 minute chart forecast before the main trading session opens at 9:30AM ET. In this case I recalculated during the 7:00AM hour at approximately 7:45AM.

On the chart below, the red arrows with a T inside identify the forecasts for top change-in-trend. The triangles with a B inside identify, forecast bottom change-in-trend. Because I recalculate the 60 minute chart forecast once a day I usually only use the forecast change-in-trend forecast for the upcoming day. On the chart below, there is one forecast change-in-trend during June 3, 2015. This is a forecast for a top at 10:00AM ET at the price 2118.48. To clearly shows this, I have placed the cursor on this time so you can see the cursor pop-up box. This is circled in red on the chart below. I have also added (1) next to the forecast. Now we will see how this forecast worked out.

es_60minjune3_643am

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The picture below shows the same forecast for the 60 minute chart of the S&P500 emini. You can see that on the chart below on June 3, the forecast was for a top in the 10AM ET hour near the price 2118.48. The chart below shows the S&P500 emini made the high for the day in the 10AM hour. This was the only forecast change-in-trend for June 3 and the forecast worked out very well.

es_60minjune3_update5

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Article #1 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 5min chart

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Here is the first in a series of articles discussing how to use the automatic Master Time Factor (MTF) forecasts in MarketWarrior. The automatic MTF forecast for the S&P500 emini works on both the 5 minute and 60 minute time frames. The chart below shows a 5 minute chart for the S&P500 emini. The exact symbol used is the DTN IQFeed symbol @ES# which is the continuous nearby contract. The chart below runs through June 3, 2015 7:25AM Eastern Time (ET). At 7:25AM I clicked the button in MarketWarrior to recalculate the forecast for this chart. The green line on the chart below is the forecast line. The red triangles with a T inside, identify the forecast tops. The triangles with a B inside, identify the bottom forecasts.

There are four forecast change in trend times on the chart below. Number (1) is a top forecast for 9:30AM ET at the price 2117.65. Number (2) is a bottom forecast for 10:50AM ET at 2110.21. Number (3) is a top forecast at 13:40(1:10PM) ET at the price 2116.30. Number (4) is a bottom forecast at 14:25(2:25PM) ET at the price 2110.21. In the second chart below, I show what happened with this ES forecast.

es_5minjune3_637am

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The MTF forecast for the S&P500 emini, 5 minute chart, turned out to have the cycle tops and bottoms inverted but the timing was very good. It is common to have the timing of a forecast correct but the top/bottom inverted. Let’s take a look at each forecast point.

The number (1) forecast saw the day’s largest price range for a 5 minute price bar. The price fell and made a bottom. The number (1) change in trend forecast was for a top at 9:30AM ET and a bottom was made at 9:35AM. The number (2) forecast was for a bottom at 10:50AM ET. The S&P500 emini made a top very close to this forecast time. The number (3) forecast was for a top at 1:40PM ET and this was the time when the S&P500 emini started a fast rally. The number (4) forecast was for a bottom at 2:25PM ET and at this time a top was made in the emini. The chart below covers the 3PM and 4PM hours, which are not shown above. This time period includes forecast number (5) which was for a top at 15:25 (3:25PM) ET at the price 2115.96. At this forecast time, the S&P500 emini made a bottom and started a rally. For all five forecasts, the top/bottom forecast was inverted but the timing of the change-in-trend was very good.

Take a look at the charts above and below. Ask yourself if having a forecast like this for the S&P500 emini 5 minute chart would help improve your trading. If your answer is yes, then download the MarketWarrior 5 free trial and sign up for the DTN IQFeed free trial which is a one week free trial.

es_5minjune3_637am_update

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DTN IQFeed upgrade is now available

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DTN IQFeed Upgrade is now available for current MarketWarrior 5 owners. If you are interested in using DTB IQFeed you can download this upgrade for free on the MarketWarrior 5 owner’s page. This upgrade is not available through the auto-update feature. We have also extended all MarketWarrior 5 users upgrade privileges through the end of 2015.

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Upgrade Available

 

The picture below shows the automatic forecast for the S&P500 E-mini (ES). The automatic forecasts work on the 5 minute and 60 minute chart. These forecasts require the DTN IQFeed subscription. You can read more about this on the MarketWarrior 5 owner’s page.

ES_Forecast1May28

5 Minute Automatic ES forecast

Forecast S&P500 emini Dec09 to Dec12

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I have two charts for this December 16 post. The first chart is the 60 minute S&P500 emini forecast for last week covering December 9 to December 12. This forecast was made using the free data downloaded using the MarketWarrior 5 downloader. The first chart shows the December 2014 ES contract through December 8, 2014. The blue line on this chart is the current percent change line. The red line is my forecast for the 60 minute chart covering Tuesday December 9, 2014 to Friday December 12, 2014.  This was made using the Master Time Factor method in MarketWarrior 5. You can see the forecast line slopes down almost the whole week. The second chart below shows how the forecast worked out.

ESZ14_Dec08_forecast

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The second chart below shows the S&P500 emini data through Friday December 12, 2014. You can see the forecast was for a down week and the S&P500 did in fact have a down week. Again this is the 60 minute chart for ESZ14.

The current weeks forecast showing December 16, 2014 to December 19, 2014 has now been posted in the MarketWarrior 5 owners page. Login to the MW5 owners page and look for the item named “Forecast S&P500 emini Dec08 to Dec12” to see the current forecast.

ESZ14_Dec12_forecast

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Forecast S&P500 emini Nov17 to Nov21

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I have created step by step instructions for making a S&P500 emini 60 minute forecast using the MarketWarrior 5. The instructions are now in the MW5 owner’s page.  I will also be posting a daily updates to the forecast in owner’s page. The picture below shows the initial forecast for the week.

esz14_nov17_forecast1

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S&P500 emini 60 minute forecast

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My forecasts for the 60 minute chart are made using MarketWarrior 5 and the Master Time Factor Charts. I could not post a forecast for last week’s 60 minute S&P500 chart. Last weeks 60 minute S&P500 chart is below. The red line in the picture is the best fit historical cycle for last weeks 60 minute chart. The blue line is the actual percent change line for the 60 minute chart. You can see the S&P500 again followed the historical cycle very closely as it usually does.  I will be posting a forecast for next week after the market closes on Monday. I will post daily updates to the forecast in the MarketWarrior 5 owner’s page.

ESZ14_Oct17_news

New Tutorial for Forecasting 60 Minute S&P500

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This week’s 60 minute forecast for the S&P500 emini has been updated to forecast Friday September 19th.

I have uploaded a new tutorial in the MarketWarrior 5 owner’s page. The tutorial discusses forecasting the 60 minute chart for the S&P500 emini. This tutorial is using the Master Time Factor in MarketWarrior 5. The title is: Sep 15 – M.T.F. Tutorial 60 minute SP500.  Log into the MarketWarrior 5 owners page to read this tutorial.

 

Super-Pitchfork Update

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The picture below shows a picture of the MarketWarrior Super-Pitchfork. In the latest version of MarketWarrior 5 we have updated the Super-Pitchfork. The Super-Pitchfork now can draw the three primary lines of the pitchfork backwards. In the second picture I have set the lines to draw backward so you can compare the two pitchforks.

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In the picture below the Super-Pitchfork has drawn the Median Line, the Upper Parallel Line and the Lower Parallel Line backwards. Drawing the lines backwards when selecting the three starting pivot points can help setup a better pitchfork.  The more pivot points the backward pitchfork lines touch the better. In the picture below the backward Median Line is touching a bottom pivot at point A. Then the market makes a top against the Upper Parallel Line at point B. This is a very common setup using the Super-Pitchfork.

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New Gann Angle Indicator

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On July 7th, we released an update for MarketWarrior 5. This release includes a new Gann Angle tool. The most important new feature is that the angle price step is now calculated automatically when the indicator is added to a chart. The calculation for the price step is based on the instructions and discussions in Gann’s Master Stock Course and Master Commodity Course.

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The new Gann Angle indicator also has a new setting allowing the indicator to draw the angles backwards. The picture below shows the Gann angles seen in the top picture now drawing backwards to the left.

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