Article #21 Forecasting the S&P500 emini 5min chart

Here is a review of the MarketWarrior forecast on the E-mini 5 minute chart for July 10, 2015. The chart below is created with the DTN IQFeed using the symbol @ES#. This symbol is the nearby E-mini contract, so you need to check which contract is currently the nearby before trading. The current nearby is the September 2015 contract.

When I use the automatic forecasting module in MarketWarrior 5, I usually identify the time period I want to trade, and then calculate the forecast as that time period approaches. The only two time periods I trade in the E-mini are the overnight period from 1:00 AM ET – 4:00 AM ET which correlates to the Shanghai exchange, and then the main trading session in the US which starts at 9:30 AM ET. On the chart below, at 9:10 AM ET leading up to the start of the main trading session, I calculated the forecasts for the 5 minute chart.

The forecast is the thin red and green line. The top arrows identify the forecast top Change-In-Trend(CIT) based on price and time. The bottom arrows identify the forecast bottom CIT based on price and time. One important part of the forecast is simply the overall pattern in the forecast. In the forecast below, there are two parts. A decline until 11:00 AM ET and then a rally through the rest of the day.


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The chart below shows the same forecast as above, but now the 5 minute price data has filled in during the day. You can see the over all pattern of the forecast was accurate. The price data fell to 10:45 AM ET and then rallied through the rest of the day. Look over the chart below and if you think this forecast would help you trade the E-mini, there is a free trial for both MarketWarrior 5 and DTN IQFeed. You can click here and here to learn more.


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